Nothing like going to the wire is there? Apologies for the delay in this, a mixture of being busy at work, going on holiday and then a surprise bit of gout for good measure has scandalously stolen my spare time. However now  I’m back to steal yours… with my considerations on the 2025 edition of the World Snooker Championship.

The WSC is a funny old tournament really. As I’ve said on these pages previously, it’s largely agreed as the pinnacle of the game of snooker but, for whatever reason, its format is completely out on a limb. It’s perfectly plausible to have not played a professional match over multi-sessions all season until the WSC qualifiers – anyone outside the top 8 (who get the Tour Championship as a seemingly cursed ‘warm up’ event) or who hasn’t got to a final all season will have this problem. You can make a decent living on the tour without really getting into multi session matches at all and focussing entirely on quick kills.

As such, although you would expect it to only reward the better players by virtue of its length, it actually has a bit of an undercurrent of ‘FA Cup style lottery’ to it for various reasons. Neil Robertson, for example, famously struggles with the two table setup. Certain players only seem to wake up at the Crucible, certain players seem to wilt. I’ve looked back at the past 6 years – we see semi final appearances for what you’d probably call ‘surprise packages’ like Gary Wilson, Anthony McGill, Si Jiahui, Jak Jones, Dave Gilbert twice, an unseeded Stuart Bingham twice (although I will concede as a former Champion his ability to navigate the tournament probably isn’t surprising). I’d also class Luca Brecel and Kyren Wilson’s victories, although both top 8 players when they won it, as ‘surprising’.

Of course outside of these surprises, we have the old stalwarts ready to mix it. O’Sullivan, Selby, Higgins and Williams usually have a say in proceedings. As I type, John Higgins is dealing with a family emergency. Mark Williams is having trouble with his eyesight. Ronnie only confirmed  he’d play at all last night and hasn’t played properly yet this year. None of this counts as ideal preparation. As a strange rule of thumb born out from historical stats, the player who beats either John Higgins or Ronnie O’Sullivan has a very high chance of winning the tournament… although it sounds obvious given that they are greats of the game and beating them must therefore mean you’re a decent player yourself, it does make me inspect the draw a bit further.

Shaun Murphy has pedigree in the event and comes into it after rediscovering winning ways in wonderful style at the Masters. Then there is of course the mysterious case of Judd Trump and why he’s “only” won one World title despite probably being consistently the best player all season for several years, causing some to wonder if he’s underachieving, despite reaching 3 finals, winning one of them, and two further semis.

One man who I suspect would kill for some Trump-style “underachievement” is Mark Allen, who over the last 2/3 years has completely rebuilt his game in an effort to make himself a World Champion yet has failed to make a dent in the sport’s most prestigious event: just two career semi finals for someone of his obvious talent is definitely underachieving. Ding is the other “big” name that would perhaps dearly love a good run – he’s shown this season by winning the International Championship and getting to the Tour Championship semi final that he can still win ‘important’ games, and there’s always the sense that time might be running out for the loveable Chinese. And speaking of loveable Chinese, what to make of Zhang Anda who has had a bit of a middling run after last season’s trio of finals – his ranking points propped up by a run to the Quarters at the UK’s and a few wins in the lucrative Saudi Arabian tournament.

Then we turn to the qualifiers… where a certain former UK Champion Zhao Xintong lurks, as does two-time World finalist Ali Carter, and aforementioned semi finalist David Gilbert. Fan has beaten Ronnie in a decider for a final, Joe O’Connor has beaten Mark Selby at the Crucible – both no mean feats – and there’s also people like Chris Wakelin, Zak Surety and Wu Yize, each of whom have ‘come of age’ to various degrees this season. Vafaei, Selt, Day and Zhou have plenty of experience. Lei Peifan won the Scottish Open in ludicrous fashion with seemingly never ending deciders against much higher ranked players. Then we have poor old Pang, Wells and Woollaston who have each got there on merit but who John Parrott almost certainly “won’t have seen much of”… always the height of disrespect for me considering the BBC can definitely pay me a fraction of what they pay the affable Liverpudlian to watch a few snooker players on YouTube.

So what do I reckon will happen?

1. The top half of the draw

Kyren Wilson looks like a machine this season doesn’t he? I’ll not lie I didn’t think he had World Champion pedigree and was one who thought he was a bit of a fluke winner, but he’s proved me and all other doubters wrong with a stellar season of high grade snooker and carried himself well. Mark Allen and Neil Robertson are knocking about waiting to roar into life in this event at some stage in their distinguished careers, but Mr Allen has said himself he’s shorn of confidence and Robertson doesn’t like the setup until it’s single table, which is crazy to say considering he’s won it. So it’s perhaps more open than it might look for the qualifiers.

Zhao is the one many are tipping to do some damage out of the qualifying set but it would be completely extraordinary to be able to keep up his scoring having not played professionally all season. However, he has a couple of things on his side – first up a kind pairing with Jak Jones, last year’s finalist but who has had a bit of a strange season (aside from his Championship League century malarkey, just two quarter finals). Let’s say he wins R1, Zhao most likely meets Wilson in the next round at which point we welcome THE CRUCIBLE CURSE. Let’s assume that does its thing, then he might have an eminently winnable game one against one of the other qualifiers, a cramped Neil Robertson, or he might have Mark Allen draining the life out of him. And if Zhao negotiates all that, probably one of Selby/O’Sullivan awaits in the semis. At which point I imagine he’ll run out of steam.

Of course Wakelin and Fan may overcome the Robertson/Allen axis of trickiness, and proceed to have an entertaining second round match. They also have the same problem in that they’re likely to play either the reigning World Champion or Zhao, then likely multiple world finalists in the next round.

As for Allen and Robertson, I’m a boring old sod so I reckon they’ll both win and play out a pretty turgid R2 game, if I was going to bet on ‘games to go to a decider’ then that would be it. At which point they may well have to wake up the next day and play Xintong/Wilson followed by Mark Selby or Ronnie O’Sullivan, all of whom will be well in the tournament zone by that point… Or they get Ali Carter who is a pretty determined chap and knows his way around the Crucible himself, albeit he did say he has a terrible neck injury which isn’t exactly going to help with the longest tournament in the calendar.

In the next quarter, who knows really. Zhang might beat Pang comfortably, or qualifier Pang might thrash the rustier seed. There’s the slight chance of O’Sullivan dumping out Carter and sacking off the rest of the event, thus giving the Anda/Pang winner a bye. Or maybe O’Sullivan will do what he did in 2022 and playing like a man possessed and winning the whole bloody thing while looking unflustered. There’s also the chance of Carter dumping out O’Sullivan and being so pleased with another Crucible scalp of his arch-enemy that he takes his eye off the ball in the next round. Eitherway, based on form and reliability, the one I fancy to definitely be in the mix for this quarter of the draw would be Mark Selby.

And even if O’Sullivan is doing his ‘man possessed’ thing, perhaps the only man who can go toe to toe with him in that form is Mark Selby. I’ll say it here now – if O’Sullivan beats Selby in the quarters, he wins the whole thing. I actually believe the tournament winner will come from one of two potential matches: a hypothetical QF of Selby v O’Sullivan and a hypothetical R2 of Trump v Murphy.

Si went on that run to the semis and should have got to the final in 2023. But he didn’t and I think it’s left him a bit battle scarred. He has a bit of an issue getting over the line in frames, last year’s game against Jak Jones there were a ludicrous amount of games lost on the final black. I fancy Gilbert to do a bit of a job on him, but even if he doesn’t you’d expect Selby to be waiting in the next round… and if there’s one man Si wouldn’t want to be playing when missing on a break of 65 with 70 left on the table, then it’s the Leicester stalwart.

2. The bottom half

Under normal circumstances, you’d fancy Higgins and Williams to make light work of their openers. But as I said above, neither of their preparation has been ideal, Yize is on a roll and O’Connor has beaten another 4-time World Champion in this postcode before. You’d expect Hawkins-Vafaei to be easy on the eye, and Xiao v Selt is tough to call after Selt came through a decider last week. If Xiao plays anything like he did earlier in the season then this might be his chance to go deep and beat one of the big prestigious names en route. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest Hawkins to prevail from that nice little quartet of games, but that is entirely based on ‘off table’ issues for the two bigger names… Higgins also made the schoolboy blunder of winning the Tour Championship which historically means he is more or less barred from progressing past round 2. I’m being facetious of course, but it’s hard to call this quarter until we see if Williams has got used to his contact lenses and if Higgins can put his father-in-law’s heart attack to the back of his mind, a big ask even for a man of John Higgins’ calibre. If Higgins is up for it, that changes the entire tournament somewhat as again he historically has a role of kingmaker. Likewise if Williams can, umm, see then we all know what he can do on a snooker table.

In the bottom quarter of the draw, Day and Surety might well beat their seeds and play each other, but then probably play Trump or Murphy. Ding and Luca also have the same problem if it goes with seeding. Both Ding and Luca are capable of big performances on the biggest stage but, as I’ve said above, I think Trump v Murphy produces this side of the draw’s finalist… Now I may be totally wrong here but with a gun to my head I’d perhaps fancy Murphy in that one as Trump is more vulnerable in the early rounds.

Shaun is a wonderful snooker player when he’s on song, I just hope he’s not doing too much fucking commentary and is there to win the tournament rather than try to be our best mate in the studio all the time. A lot has been made of his work with Peter Ebdon… can you imagine him ok-ing spending half your time doing media work? Of course not, he’ll be telling Shaun to get his head down and crack on with doing everything possible to win.

Of course, Trump may beat Murphy and then has a potentially quite smooth run to the final with nobody he hasn’t beaten before, complete with potentially picking up £100k if he gets 7 centuries along the way. Only in Judd Trump land, the Crucible is far from smooth. The centuries bonus seems like free climbing El Capitan at this exact moment in time. However, I happen to think he’s concentrating on this tournament a lot more than he lets on – picking and choosing tournaments this season, enjoying practicing in sunnier climes. If Trump plays remotely near his best there’s only really a small amount of people who can stop him, but then again we’ve said all this before and he comes unstuck in a random tie that you wouldn’t expect. I happen to think that potential Murphy game might be the sharpener he needs early in the tournament, if it happens and he negotiates it, then he’ll be dangerous.

A Trump v Selby final would be intriguing to say the least: I genuinely reckon only Ronnie or Trump can beat Selby here (assuming Higgins/Williams aren’t in tip top condition, if they are then throw them in too), in the event of that final I’d fancy Trump to try to ‘do a Luca’ and just pot him off the table like he did with Higgins in 2019. It might work, it might not, but there’s no way he can outmanoeuvre Selby over 35 frames by playing anything other than his natural game.

3. But hang on, didn’t you just say there’s always a surprise package?

Yes, yes I fucking did. Go on then, ignoring all the bollocks I’ve written above – surprise packages for me lie in either Chris Wakelin, Xiao Goudong or Wu Yize. Each have winnable first round matches (for various non-snooker reasons) and might be able to get to the quarters nicely, by which time a few of the big hitters will have knocked each other out. Dave Gilbert probably should beat Si, but then likely meets Mark Selby, so our resident surprise package has it all to do.

Out of the “bigger” names, Hawkins always flies under the radar a bit, but for whatever reason seems to come unstuck at the latter stages. However it has been revealed that he’s been practicing with a certain Mr Ronald Antonio O’Sullivan and if anything’s going to sharpen you up for the biggest tournament… Would Allen or Robertson getting to the final be a surprise? I’d say probably yes, especially as their draw is so tough. Allen certainly has had the sort of “meh” season that Kyren had going into last year’s WSC, not sure whether that’s a useful omen or not mind.

I appreciate there are a few players I haven’t mentioned in great detail here (Woollaston, Zhou, Pang, Brecel, Wells, Anda). I can’t personally see any of them getting to the one-table setup, with only really Luca the one who I’m wondering will leave me with egg on my face. And even then he’s largely impossible to predict so it’s not the biggest crime in the world to overlook his chances.

4. Come on, you can’t really believe the Crucible curse

I’m not a superstitious man at all and I reckon if Kyren goes deep he has as good a chance as anyone of breaking it. But, other than Lei Peifan who I’d expect him to beat comfortably, he’s likely got Xintong and Allen/Robertson to overcome before likely one of Selby/O’Sullivan. Getting to the final is going to be a big ask.

Even if Wilson goes to the final, it’s a different mentality going into it as defending champion compared to going into it thinking I’ve got to win 18 frames against Jak Jones and I’ll be World Champ (no offence Jak Jones). Having, say, Shaun Murphy or John Higgins sat in the opposite chair is a completely different kettle of fish: although I don’t think Kyren will be worried, but I do think human nature would be for some element of nerves which he simply hasn’t really shown since those difficult final frames v Jones 12 months ago, in which he nearly blew it. (Edit: since typing this, a very strangely timed comment has come out about why his Masters post match interview was salty due to Murphy in some way annoying him before the final session. It’s all scant on details but it does seem odd to say it now and could add extra spice to a potential final)

Wilson’s, ahem, trump card, will be if he plays a certain Bristolian lad called Judd. Of the 10 ranking finals Kyren has won, 5 of them have involved beating Judd Trump (and fwiw his finals record against other top 8 players isn’t actually that great). He has ‘the hex’ on Judd for sure, but hexes are always there to be broken… I suspect nothing would give Judd greater satisfaction than winning the World Title against the one guy everyone writes him off against.

5. Anything else?

The 147 bonus is still on for Murphy. I’d fancy him to have a go at that if he gets enough frames. Anda also in the running for but out of the two I’d fancy Murphy to do it more, he’s more of a heavy scorer. Murphy also has perhaps the easiest of the opening round ties (sorry Dan Wells, I genuinely wish you all the best!) to get into a groove early.

If he could be so kind as to do it in the final session on Bank Holiday Monday after the sponsors have drawn my seat at the start of the session, then I’ll be £25k richer and I’ll even buy him a new pocket square.

In summary: Selby is my personal tip to win, closely followed by either Trump or Murphy. And the only other person who I feel will have anything to say about that is everyone’s favourite/least favourite mercurial cueman chasing his 8th World Title…

© Long Form Snooker 2025